The transportation industry is under immense strain. A growing driver shortage, rising insurance premiums and costly litigation from trucking accidents are placing significant pressure on commercial fleets across the U.S. Amid these challenges, autonomous vehicles (AVs) — once the realm of science fiction — are emerging as a viable and cost-effective solution for long-haul and middle-mile freight transport. Self-driving semi-trucks could dramatically reshape the industry, improving safety, boosting efficiency, and reducing the total cost of risk.
THE PRESSING NEED FOR CHANGE
The U.S. trucking industry is facing a critical labor shortage, despite being a top five occupation in 30 states. In 2023, it was short 60,000 drivers, with that figure projected to climb even higher.
At the same time, most trucking accidents are attributed to human error, including fatigue, distraction, speeding, and hard braking. The financial consequences of these accidents are escalating rapidly. Nuclear verdicts — jury awards exceeding $10 million — are on the rise, with the median award rising from $24 million in 2013 to $36 million in 2022 (a 50 percent increase). As a result, insurance premiums have increased substantially, further burdening fleet operators.
This confluence of labor shortages and rising risk has made the case for autonomous trucking more compelling than ever. With the ability to operate continuously without breaks and to eliminate human error, AVs offer significant strategic advantages.
UNLOCKING EFFICIENCY AND SAVINGS
One of the most promising aspects of self-driving semis is their potential to increase road time drastically. Human drivers are limited by hours-of-service regulations, which cap their driving time and reduce fleet productivity. In contrast, autonomous trucks can operate up to 94 percent of operator hours, compared to the 29 percent utilization rate of human-operated trucks. This jump in productivity could redefine delivery schedules and logistics planning.
The economic benefits are equally substantial. Fully autonomous trucks could reduce annual operating costs by as much as 45 percent, potentially saving the industry $125 billion over time. These savings stem not just from the elimination of driver-related expenses — such as wages, recruitment, training and benefits — but also from lower accident rates, reduced downtime, and more optimized fuel use due to consistent driving behavior.
OVERCOMING ADOPTION BARRIERS
Despite the benefits, adopting AV technology is not without its challenges. The initial cost is high: a standard new semi-truck may cost $200,000 or more. Yet when spread over the vehicle’s six- to seven-year lifecycle, these upfront investments may be offset by long-term cost reductions.
Another major hurdle is insurance. Current policies are often ill-equipped to address the unique risks associated with AVs, such as software failures or issues with sensor hardware. Fleet operators must work closely with insurance brokers and legal counsel to understand and manage these evolving exposures. Solid contractual agreements with technology providers and component manufacturers are essential to mitigate liability.
Public perception also remains a concern. Accidents involving AVs tend to receive outsized media attention, and skepticism about the safety of driverless vehicles persists. However, even in a fully autonomous future, experienced drivers will still play crucial roles — serving as remote operators, maintenance specialists, dispatchers or data analysts — creating new jobs instead of taking them away.
CHARTING THE PATH FORWARD
Transitioning to autonomous trucking is a complex journey that requires strategic planning, regulatory navigation and expert support. To begin, fleet operators should assess their specific needs and determine whether retrofitting existing vehicles or purchasing new AV-equipped trucks makes more sense. Operators should also consider which components — such as electronic logging devices or driver-facing cameras — may become obsolete, potentially yielding further cost savings.
Currently, AV risk is often underwritten by insurers who specialize in technology and emerging industries, rather than traditional trucking carriers. This creates a disconnect in how risk is perceived and priced. Bridging this gap will require deliberate education of the commercial auto market — including clear data on AV product safety, loss performance, and the evolving liability framework. As confidence builds, more traditional trucking insurers may enter the market, increasing capacity and competition.
Engaging legal and insurance experts early in the process is crucial. State-level AV regulations are evolving quickly, and compliance is non-negotiable. Meanwhile, brokers can help identify gaps in existing coverage and recommend tailored policies that address the unique risks of autonomous technology.
Data will be another critical asset. Many fleets already collect telematics data, and certain platforms can analyze this information to model risk exposure and predict the return on investment for AV adoption.
A SMARTER, SAFER FUTURE
While the road to widespread AV adoption may be long, the direction is clear. The transportation industry must embrace innovation to address the structural challenges it faces. Autonomous semis offer a promising path forward — one that could revolutionize logistics by increasing safety, lowering costs, and ensuring sustainable growth.
For fleet operators looking to stay competitive and resilient in a rapidly changing environment, now is the time to explore the possibilities of self-driving technology. With the right strategy, partnerships, and protections in place, autonomous trucking could be the key to driving the industry into a smarter, safer future.
about the authors
Edward Walker expertise spans the entire autonomous ecosystem across North America, ranging from residential construction and lawncare equipment, advanced wheelchair technology and delivery, passenger delivery/item delivery models, micromobility, and even some of the largest brands within the autonomous trucking space.
Steve Miller is the vice president of innovation and mobility at global insurance brokerage Hub International. He advises a nationwide portfolio of clients across transportation, technology, autonomy and advanced manufacturing. He was recognized as a Transportation and Power Broker by Risk & Insurance Magazine in 2021, 2022 and 2024.
